A state emergency planner asked us this directly: is there an algorithm for how much infant formula to keep stocked at a shelter? They had started building one from population estimates, birth rates, breastfeeding rates and expected disaster duration.
Good news — you do not need to build one. An established international planning rate already exists, and it is what IYCF-E organizations work from.
The planning rate
UNICEF’s guidance on the procurement of breastmilk substitutes in humanitarian settings (2021) is the international standard. The figures below come from Tables 1 and 2, page 22.
| Product | Rate per formula-fed infant | In US packaging |
|---|---|---|
| Ready-to-feed formula — the preferred product in an emergency | 750 mL per day | About one quart per infant per day, ideally as 12–13 of the 2 oz single-serve bottles |
| Powdered formula — backup only, requires safe water | 3.5 kg per month | About nine 400 g cans |
The reason to buy ready-to-feed in single-serve bottles rather than larger containers is waste and risk: once opened, ready-to-feed formula must be used within two hours. A 32 oz container opened for one feed is mostly thrown away. Single-serve bottles remove that problem entirely.
Worked example: a 250-person shelter
This is the arithmetic, step by step, so you can redo it for your own numbers.
- Children under 2 are about 2.3% of the general population — so roughly 5 or 6 children in a 250-person shelter.
- About half of those are under 12 months — roughly 3 infants who could need formula. Children between 12 and 24 months do not need infant formula; stock shelf-stable whole milk and toddler-appropriate food for them instead.
- Stock for the worst case — assume all 3 are fully formula-fed. Three infants × one quart × seven days is about 21 quarts, or roughly 275 of the two-ounce bottles, for the first week.
- Include about 10–15% soy and hypoallergenic. FEMA’s Infant/Toddler kits stock all three types for exactly this reason.
The algorithm simplifies to: shelter population × 2.3% under 2 × 50% under 12 months × 100% formula-dependent for stocking × 750 mL × days until resupply.
Two things that matter more than the arithmetic
Stock for the worst case, distribute by assessment
These are not the same operation, and collapsing them is how untargeted distribution happens. You plan as though every infant under one might be formula-dependent. You give formula only after a rapid feeding assessment, never as a blanket handout to every family with a baby. The rapid needs assessment is the tool for that conversation.
It is worth knowing that only about 25% of US infants are exclusively breastfed through six months, so in practice actual need often approaches the worst case anyway. Planning generously and distributing carefully is not a contradiction.
You cannot predict how long a disaster will last, and you do not have to
The standard approach is a 72-hour to 7-day initial stock plus a resupply pipeline. Beyond about five to seven days you will know what the families actually in front of you need, and you can buy to that rather than to a model. If state supplies deplete, a state can submit a Resource Request Form to FEMA for Infant/Toddler kits.
One correction worth making to most commodity lists
Shelter commodity lists routinely pair formula with bottles. In an emergency setting that pairing is a problem — bottles are difficult to clean without reliable hot water, and global guidance favours clean cups and bowls instead. If you are reviewing a state or county stocking list, this is the single most useful edit to suggest, alongside moving powdered formula from first choice to backup.
Sources
UNICEF, Procurement of breastmilk substitutes in humanitarian settings (2021) — Tables 1 and 2, p. 22. CDC IYCF-E Toolkit, shelter support guidance. FEMA, Commonly Used Sheltering Items catalog.
These are planning figures for people stocking shelters and distribution points. An individual infant’s intake varies with age, weight and feeding method, and clinical decisions about a particular baby belong with that baby’s provider.
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